8 Weeks. 8 Red Candles. Nifty Just Did Something It Has Not Done in 25 Years. 📉
Main aapko ek baat batati hoon.
I have been staring at the Nifty weekly chart for days. Eight red candles in a row, lined up like dominoes.
The last time Indian markets saw a weekly losing streak this long was 2001. Twenty five years ago.
September alone took 5.67% off the index, the worst September in eight years, with 40 of the 50 Nifty stocks ending lower. We are sitting nearly 14% below the record high of 26,373.
Toh obviously, mere DMs bhare pade hain ek hi sawaal se. "Palak, sab bech doon kya?" 🔍
So what actually broke? 🌍
Here is what most people miss. Nothing broke inside India. The pressure is almost entirely external.
US bond yields. The US 10 year Treasury is near 5.3%. When a bond that safe pays that much, global money does not need emerging market risk. So it leaves.
Record foreign selling. FIIs have pulled a record 27.8 billion dollars out of Indian equities in 2026. Almost ₹10,000 crore in a single session before October opened.
Crude above 100 dollars on US and Iran tension, feeding straight into inflation and corporate margins.
A weak rupee feeding the loop. Rupee girta hai, foreign investor ka dollar return kam hota hai, woh aur bechta hai. Classic cycle.
Rate hike fear at home, plus a heavy IPO calendar pulling liquidity out of secondary markets.
Five headwinds at once. Koi ek company ka problem nahi hai yeh. 📌
But here is the part nobody is talking about ⚖️
Eight weeks sounds terrifying. The actual damage is not.
From 3 August to 25 September, Nifty went 24,573 to 23,140. A decline of about 5.83% spread across eight weeks.
Padhiye woh number dobara. Eight weeks of falling, and the index gave up less than six percent.
In 2008, a seven week streak took 22.1% off the index. This one is long in duration but genuinely mild in depth. Not a crash. A slow grind of foreign selling with no fresh buying to absorb it.
And valuations have quietly become reasonable 📊
The Nifty PE in September sat at 19.26, roughly 17% below its ten year average. Price to book is down to 2.75 from 3.5 in January.
Samjhiye iska matlab. Aath hafte pehle jo index aap kharid rahe the, aaj wahi sasta ho gaya hai. The companies did not get worse. The price got better.
And earnings are still forecast to grow around 17% annually from here.
My honest verdict 🎯
I am not going to tell you to sell. I think that is the worst decision available right now.
Selling locks in a loss caused by foreign liquidity, not business failure. Nothing structural changed about Indian companies in eight weeks. DIIs have been net buyers for 37 straight months. SIP contributions actually hit their highest levels during the worst market months. That domestic floor is real.
And in Nifty's entire history, there has never been a negative five year return period. Not once.
So instead of selling:
- Keep your SIP running. This is exactly when rupee cost averaging does its best work.
- If you have idle cash, deploy in tranches, not one shot. Nobody catches the exact bottom.
- Lean towards quality. Low debt, consistent earnings, strong promoter holding, genuine domestic revenue.
- If stock picking is not your thing, a plain Nifty 50 index fund does the job.
- Keep your emergency fund separate. Never invest money you need in two years.
But let me be honest about the risk ⚠️
There is no single pattern after a long red streak. In 2012 and 2013, strong recoveries followed. In 2008, the market went substantially lower after the streak ended.
Nobody, including me, can call this the bottom. Analysts expect October to stay volatile. Yields and crude need to cool before foreign flows genuinely reverse.
Which is exactly why I said tranches, not lump sum. And quality, not leverage.
Jab market gir raha hota hai, sabse mushkil kaam hota hai kuch na karna. Ya phir khareedna.
Lekin wealth usi waqt banti hai jab sab log darr rahe hote hain.
Eight red weeks ne aapke portfolio ko nahi toda. Woh aapke patience ko test kar raha hai. 🙏
Want a framework for exactly this kind of market, where to add, what to avoid, how to size entries? My mentorship programme is built for this.
📩 financewithpalak@gmail.com | 📞 9892288774
Finance With Palak, because the best investors are made in the worst markets.
This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market investments are subject to risk. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.
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